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With the last week of the season upon us, I decided to write an article about the playoff possibilities for the AAA teams in the Rocky Mountain Football League (RMFL). It has been an interesting season and I am sure the last week will be the same. I must admit that I am no expert on the by-laws, constitution, and rules of the RMFL; but I am going to give it my best effort. I will break it down by division automatic positions and then take on the wild-card possibilities.

There are eight teams that will make the playoffs with seven being automatic spots and one wild-card spot. The North Division receives three spots for the top three teams and the Central and South Divisions get automatic spots for their top two teams. The remaining spot goes to a wild-card team. I will then go all out and predict the AAA champions. I will start with the AAA North Division.

AAA North Division
The top three teams in the Northern Division are all locked for a playoff spot this season. Their positions in the division are not for sure, but they all are guaranteed a playoff spot. Regardless of the outcome this next weekend; the Bitterroot Blaze, Madison Lionz, and Treasure Valley Spartans are all moving on to the playoffs. The Pocatello Predators and the Idaho Falls Mustangs are still in the race for the wildcard position.

AAA Central Division
The top two positions in the Central Division are not so solid. The only thing that is for sure is the fact that the Utah Shock will be in the playoffs. The next guaranteed position in that division is up for grabs this weekend. The Ogden Rockets can guarantee a playoff spot by beating the St. George Blitz or watching the Bears lose to the Pocatello Predators (the Rockets own the tie-breaker over the Bears). Beating the Blitz is easier said than done with the game being played in St. George. The Rockets have held their own in their losses this season and, if they travel well, should make it an interesting game.

The Bears only chance of moving forward into the playoffs is to win this weekend. If the Bears don’t win this weekend, they are out of the playoffs with no possibility of even a wild-card spot. Unfortunately for the Bears, the Predators need (the Predators have a very slim mathematical chance at the wild-card position if they lose as described later) to win this weekend to make it to the playoffs in the wild-card position. This will be a difficult game for both teams, the Bears will have a slight edge by playing at home but the Predators seem to win more away from home. This game is completely up-in-the-air. The Bears can only win the automatic spot from their division if the Rockets lose to the Blitz and the Bears win.

AAA South Division
The South Division is the only division in AAA that is completely set. The Wasatch Revolution and the St. George Blitz will both move on to the playoffs and the Utah Heat and Utah Wolverines will be sitting home. The only thing the Revolution and Blitz will be playing for this weekend is to improve their playoff seeds.

AAA Wild-Card
The Pocatello Predators are in the driver’s seat for the wild-card position. Beating the Bears on Saturday will guarantee that the Predator’s make the playoffs as the wild-card team. With a win on Saturday by the Predators, the only possible outcomes for the wild-card position would be an outright win of the wild-card position or a tie with the Mustangs and the Predators own the tie-breaker over the Mustangs. With a loss to the Bears, the Predators only possibility would come with a loss by the Rockets and a loss by the Mustangs forcing a three-way tie in which the Predators would own the tie-breaker.

The Idaho Falls Mustangs only chance starts with the Bears beating the Predators. If the Predators beat the Bears, the Mustangs are out. Like the Bears, a loss on Saturday and the Mustangs are done for the season. The only sure way the Mustangs are in the playoffs would be to win on Saturday and have the Bears beat the Predators and the Rockets lose to the Blitz. There is a mathematical chance of winning the wild-card position if the Bears beat the Predators and the Rockets beat the Blitz causing a tie-breaker between the Bears and the Mustangs for the wild-card position (the Rockets would get the automatic bid from the Central Division in this case). Because the Bears and Mustangs have not played during the season, it would come down to a strength-of-schedule determination which could go any direction based on the outcomes of the games Saturday. Currently the Mustangs have that advantage but I predict it will either be equal or the Bears will have the advantage after Saturday. If that tie-breaker can’t determine the winner of the wild-card position, it would come down to the fewest number of points allowed during the season. The Bears currently hold that tie-breaker.

The Bears only chance at the wild-card position is to win on Saturday and have the Mustangs lose or have the Mustangs win and end up having a better strength-of-schedule (remember that if the Rockets win, the Rockets would lock up the automatic spot and not be in the running for the wild-card spot or the Rockets would lose and the Bears would have the automatic spot and not be in the running for the wild-card spot). The Mustangs are playing the only team in AAA that has not won a game all season and the game is in Idaho Falls, so it is highly unlikely the Mustangs will lose this game. To be safe the Bears will be cheering for all the teams they have played this season to win and all the teams the Mustangs have played to lose. This is the only tie-breaker that will have to be determined after all the games are played on Saturday.

The Rockets do not have a chance at winning the wild-card spot. Their only chance with the wild-card spot is to end in a three-way tie and Pocatello would win that tie-breaker. That isn’t to say the Rockets are in a bad position, they have a high likelihood of winning the automatic spot from the Central Division instead. Their future depends more on winning the automatic spot than the wild-card spot.

AAA Playoff Teams
With only one week to play, there are six teams guaranteed to advance on to the playoffs and two playoff positions undetermined with four teams fighting it out for those positions. The two teams in control of their future are the Predators and the Rockets, the Bears and Mustangs must rely on other teams losing. It is also already determined that four teams are out already with no shot at the playoffs.

After all the games are played on Saturday and all the results calculated, I will project the following seeding for the AAA playoffs:

1. Utah Shock (8-0)
2. Wasatch Revolution (7-1)
3. Madison Lionz (6-2)
4. Bitterroot Blaze (6-2)
5. St. George Blitz (5-3)
6. Treasure Valley Spartans (5-3)
7. Cache Valley Bears (4-4)
8. Idaho Falls Mustangs (4-4)

AAA Championship Game and Winner
I guess I might as well go all out and pick the AAA champion at the same time – why not. I predict the Utah Shock will play the Wasatch Revolution in the championship game and the winner will be the Utah Shock! How is that for going all out in predictions? There are some very good teams in the playoffs and I can only imagine how exciting the games will be this year. I believe there will probably be some surprises by the time the playoffs are finished. One thing that I have seen over this season is that there are many very good teams this year. Overall the league is getting better. It is a good time to be a fan of the RMFL.

-pete-